Dictionary

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2026 AI models

Same-day MLB pricing engines on this site (team totals, F5, hitter props, pitcher K / hits / outs, HR, NRFI). They read L/R wOBA splits and the starter’s pitch-type mix, then post a card against the live number. They are not the long-sample Action systems.

5

50/50 market

A spread or total that is close to a coin flip after juice. Those markets are easier to grade in large samples than parlays or one-off props.

A

Action systems

Long-sample historical systems (NFL, MLB, NBA) with written rules and a published ledger. Public pages use letter names only — not internal system codes.

Adjusted EV

Also adj EV

Expected value after shrinking a thin batter-vs-pitcher sample. The daily card and digest use this number for BvP when the raw matchup history is small.

Against the spread

Also ATS

Whether a team covered the point spread, not whether they won the game. A −7 favorite that wins by 3 loses ATS.

American odds

The posted price: −110 means risk $110 to win $100; +150 means risk $100 to win $150. Break-even at −110 is about 52.4%.

B

Bankroll

The money set aside for the season. A working rule here is about 3% of bankroll per unit, held flat so a heater or a cold week does not resize the bet.

Batter vs pitcher

Also BvP

A hitter’s history against that day’s starter, used on hits, total bases, and HR cards. Small samples get an adjusted EV.

Break-even

The win rate a price needs just to get back to even after juice. At −110 that is about 52.4%; at −120 it is about 54.5%.

C

Closing line

The last number before the game starts. A public-money closer that still sits on the Over is often the expensive side.

Confirmed card

The afternoon (or weekend) publish after lineups and numbers settle. That sheet is what the daily board and digest use for today’s EV.

Contact quality

How hard and clean a batter hits the ball (exit velocity, launch, barrel rate). Used on 2026 hitter and HR models with the starter and park.

Contrarian

Taking the side the public is not on, usually when tickets and money disagree. It is a filter, not a slogan.

D

Daily card

Also daily board, today's board

The published plays for that slate, ranked by EV. Membership sees the names; records and ROI stay visible without a login.

Dog

Also underdog

The side getting points or plus money. Historically kinder than favorites on many spread systems after juice.

E

Early bird

Also founding rate

The $300 / year opening price on the site. Launch price is $600 / year.

Early card

Also morning card

The first look before confirmed lineups. Useful for planning; the site’s daily EV follows the confirmed card once it exists.

Edge

Model probability minus the market’s implied probability (or the gap from the fair number to the book number). HR public cards use a 3% floor.

Edge tiers

Also Thin, Moderate, Strong, Elite

How wide the edge is on a play. Thin is under 3%, Moderate about 3–6%, Strong about 6–12%, Elite 12%+. Thin HR rows are not on the public card.

Expected value

Also EV, EV %

What a $1 bet is worth at this price: model win probability × decimal payout − 1. Shown as a percent (for example +12.7%). Positive EV is not a lock.

F

F5

Also first five, first 5

The first five innings only — moneyline or total. A later rally does not grade an F5 bet.

Fair

Also fair price, fair line, model number

The number the model thinks is even. If the book is off that number, the gap is the edge.

Favorite

The side laying points or minus money. Public tickets often pile here; that is why many systems start on the dog.

Flat unit

The same stake on every qualifying play. Changing size after a win or a loss creates a new system the ledger cannot grade.

Form

Also last 20

Recent results on the same rules, usually the last 20 graded plays. Lifetime still sits next to it so a short run does not rewrite the system.

G

Graded

A play that has a result — win, loss, or push — posted on the ledger. Pending rows are not in the record yet.

H

Home / away split

Results or rates broken out by venue. Pitcher and hitter models use it; it is not a reason to override a written rule by itself.

J

Juice

Also vig, the vig

The book’s tax in the price. −110 each side is a nickel of juice; −120 is a dime. Spreads and totals are 50/50 markets — a nickel is often the whole edge.

K

K props

Also pitcher strikeouts

Over/under on a starter’s strikeouts. The 2026 K model prices that number against the live line.

L

Ledger

The graded history on Results: same written filters, same unit, wins and losses included. If you cannot click the system later and see that record again, you cannot size the bet.

Lifetime

The full published sample for a system or model version. Action systems show lifetime; 2026 models are this season only.

Line shopping

Taking the best legal price across books. The same Packers +3 at −110 vs −120 is a different investment.

Lock

Marketing for a bet that cannot lose. This site does not sell locks. A qualifier can still lose.

M

Moneyline

Also ML

Betting who wins the game (or F5), not the spread. Plus-money is the dog; minus money is the favorite.

Money percentage

Also dollars, handle

Share of the dollars on a side, closer to where larger bets sit. When money and tickets disagree, start on the money.

N

NRFI

Also no run first inning

Neither team scores in the first inning. The other side is YRFI (yes run first inning).

O

OBP

Also on-base percentage

How often a batter reaches base. Supporting stat on MLB hitter process; not the same as wOBA.

Opening line

The first number the market posted. Later moves vs tickets are how you spot reverse line movement.

Overlap

When more than one system or model points at the same side or total. It is context, not extra units by itself.

Over / under

Also total

Betting whether combined points or runs go over or under the posted number. A land on the number is a push.

P

PA

Also plate appearance

A batter’s trip to the plate. wOBA and BvP splits need a real PA sample before they mean much.

Park factor

How much a ballpark inflates or suppresses scoring and home runs. Used on 2026 run, F5, and HR cards.

Parlay

Also same-game parlay, SGP

Several legs, one ticket. Correlated same-game legs are not independent coins; the boost is marketing. Spreads and totals stay cleaner to analyze.

Pitcher hits / outs

Also HA, hits allowed, outs recorded

2026 props on how many hits a starter allows and how many outs he records. Graded on the official box.

Plus-money

Plus American odds (for example +140). You win more than you risk. Often the dog.

Prop

A player or team stat line (hits, strikeouts, total bases), not the game spread or total. Smaller units — the book catches on after a couple of games.

Public money

Also the public

The popular side, usually the name favorite or the Over. Ticket percentage is the public tell.

Push

The result lands on the number. Stake comes back; it does not count as a win or a loss.

Q

Qualifier

A play that meets the written rules today. You take the next qualifier; you do not skip it because last week was ugly.

R

Record

Also W–L

Wins–losses, with pushes listed when they exist (for example 12–39–2). Pulled from the graded ledger, not a recap.

Reverse line movement

Also RLM

The line moves against the tickets. The public is on one side; the number goes the other way. A filter that the market is defending a side — not a guarantee.

ROI

Also return on investment

Units won (or lost) divided by units risked, as a percent. Shown next to the record on Results.

Rule

Also system rule, reopen the rule

The written filters for a system: market, side, and why it qualifies. “Reopen the rule” means you can click that system on Results later and see the same filters plus the graded record (last-20 and lifetime), not start a new hunch from a recap.

S

SLG

Also slugging percentage

Total bases per at-bat. Extra-base power; used with OBP and wOBA on the hitter process.

Sharp money

The side with the larger bets when tickets and money disagree. Starting point for most spread and total systems here.

Snapshot

The timestamp on the numbers you are looking at. Ingest rebuilds the public JSON from the model repos; it is not a live ticker.

Spread

Also run line, point spread

A handicap so both sides are closer to even (NFL −3, MLB −1.5). You need the team to cover, not just win.

Stuff

Pitch-level quality (velocity, spin, shape) used on 2026 pitcher models. Not the same as a box-score ERA.

System

A written rule you can grade: same filters, same unit, through the cold weeks. If you cannot write it down, it is a hunch.

T

Ticket percentage

Also tickets

Share of bets on a side, mostly smaller public bets. High tickets plus a line moving the other way is RLM.

U

Unit

Also 1u

The standard stake. Results dollar P&L uses $100 per unit unless a page says otherwise. Do not resize it mid-season.

Umpire under

MLB totals idea: some home-plate umpires run a larger zone, more strikeouts, fewer free runners. Paired with starter K rates and public Overs.

V

Void

The bet is canceled (scratch, postponement, rule). It is removed from the card and does not grade as a loss.

W

Wind under

NFL totals idea: high wind (about 9+ mph) plus style and often RLM, always on the Under for the system side.

wOBA

Also weighted on-base average

A linear-weights rate for reaching base and extra-base damage. Mid-season splits only on the hitter process; 2026 models price the same-day matchup without waiting on a toggle.

Y

YRFI

Also yes run first inning

At least one run in the first inning. The other side of NRFI.